So I may not be able to do this blog for much longer, so I should have fun while I can. The budget address is Wednesday, so what will be the plan? Just as a warning, these are just wild guesses.
    First thing, why did Quinn propose cutting the fee to file for an LLC in his state of the state? Dan Long from CGFA says their data shows Illinois' current personal income tax rate(with the temporary hike) as being competitive with neighboring states. But the corporate rate is not. If it drops to 3.5% per Madigan's earlier proposal, plus the 2.5% replacement tax(which needs to be added together for accurate comparison), we get a 5% corporate rate, which is competitive with the neighbors. If you drop the corporate rate and extend the personal rate, the first complaint will be that most businesses file as individuals. But then Quinn can say he made it easier for them to file as corporations, thus protecting the job creators, while bringing in needed revenue. Problem with this idea? Not populist enough for Quinn. You seem like you are giving breaks to big business, while hurting ordinary citizens. Solution? Madigan's millionaire tax. No it doesn't fill the entire budget hole, but it helps the cause.
    Another thought on a different route, whether to pass a full year or 6 month budget. A 6 month budget means you can match spending to revenue, which would include the current rates, thus negating the 1.6 billion dropoff for the first half of the year. Quinn can spend like the rates stay the same, then if he gets re-elected or not, push for an extension during the lame duck session, or if he loses, let Rauner deal with 1.6 billion less for half the budget year, which would make cuts twice as harsh for that half. I honestly think Quinn believes in his cause, and would have a hard time doing the latter, but maybe he would be okay simply trying his best to pass the extension whether he wins or loses, whether it passes or fails.
   Third possibility I'm throwing out there, push for a progressive income tax. Getting on the ballot and passing it in November doesn't bring enough money in soon enough, but he could push for new borrowing to cover us until then.
    Whatever way he goes, Rauner is now the opponent, so Quinn has to be very careful about simply pushing for an extension of the current tax hike. Generally speaking, pro-tax increase candidates lose to those who push for lower taxes. So no matter what, he has to make sure any higher taxes are targeted at millionaires and not most voters. And hes to make sure he pushes for at least current levels of education funding, since schools are a pet cause for Rauner.

    So I was out of town at a funeral today, and missed the fun of the millionaire amendment. My intial gut reaction is... Seriously? This feels like a movie about politics, not the real thing. And from Madigan, the most powerful man in Illinois. Come on. First off this is over the top populist, secondly I can't see it passing, but who knows. This just seems so easy to attack, because millinaires are the people who can most easily relocate. Plus this is coming from the same lawmaker who filed a bill cutting corporate taxes to 3.5%. Mixed messages? We offer lower taxes for your business, but for the owner, you get hit extra hard.
    Why are we hearing things like this? Simple, because Brady almost beat Quinn in 2010 on the single issue of not raising taxes. No one wants to raise taxes, or extend the income tax hike on very many Illinoisans.(at least not those with significant authority)
    I have to take this as a simple attempt, along with the corporate tax cut proposal, to just get lots of ideas out there before the election, make no one happy, but offer everyone hope that they're on your side. Plus maybe this lets Quinn reference this proposal as taxing people like Rauner, and hitting up the .01% thing.

    So I'm breaking down today into multiple posts. I haven't been as active here as I would have liked, lots going on personally that I can't talk about, plus a death in the family which had me out of town today, etc. So first, the primary election. As expected, Bruce Rauner and Pat Quinn won. No shockers on Tuesday, other than how close the GOP side was. Whether it was Dillard getting dems to cross over, or low turnout, he over achieved. I said before that on a dollar spent per percentage point of the vote total, Dillard was doing better than Rauner. That definitely was the case then. As far as Quinn, he won 75%, which is a strong victory, but I think there were plenty of dems pulling republican ballots. If that wasn't the case, I believe Hardiman would've taken a higher percentage of the vote. Clearly there are dems unhappy with Quinn, but come November, I believe they'll hold their nose and vote for the incumbent. This will likely be the most expensive gubernatorial race in Illinois history, but if I'm a betting man, I say we have the same governor at this time next year.
    Also, I was kind of disappointed that Rutherford stayed in the race, yet came out pretty much as soon as the polls closed and conceded. His votes could've changed the outcome, and he surely knows this. Obviously he doesn't have much love for Rauner, but yet he stayed in and helped Rauner win. Bad call for him.
    A lot of people were giving Brady heat for not dropping out, but keep in mind he heard many of the same complaints in 2010 before winning. No one should really fault him for staying him.
    As a final note, I talked to Dillard the next day, and he seemed genuinely happy. Clearly the end of the campaign is a big relief, and I think he is taking solace in the moral victory of a near victory, despite being outspent by millions. He always seems like a true class act. He says he has no plans for running for any other offices in the future, so kudos to him for a long and distinguished career in Illinois politics.

    The primary keeps drawing nearer. Today our PAR intern had a little sheet where they try to predict who is going to win a multitude of races. I think it would be a fun game if elected officials, media memebers, etc. had to fill these out, then we all look back at them mid next week.

    The biggest things that stand out to me in the races are the narrowing of the gap between Rauner and Dillard, and between Hardiman and Quinn. The Dillard bump should be expected, he's been getting strong support from a multitude of union groups. The cash is getting his ads out there, it's that simple. He had been doing nothing for months, so he was languishing in last place. Now the entire non-Rauner-backing-establishment is behind him, as are the unions that are just scared of Rauner. Rauner was the only one getting much airtime, that led to his massive lead. Now we're seeing what some cash behind Dillard can do as well. And in fairness, I think if you look at dollar per poll percentage type view, Dillard may be outperforming Rauner. The problem is that Dillard just doesn't have the same amount of cash.

    The bigger problem is that all the sudden Dillard supporters are probably just too late. It would be interesting to see how this race could've been moving along if that financial support had occurred a month or two ago, when Rauner wasn't so far out front. But that didn't happen. Most people saw Rauner early on and pictured Oberweiss, Gidwitz, etc. Big question here is how well Rauner's ground game will work, and how many people the unions can get to actually pull GOP ballots for Dillard. The idea of that happening also makes me wonder if those temporary Republicans could affect other races with their ballots.

    Meanwhile the Governor seems to be in hiding, and lawmakers continue to work on budget stuff, apparently by primarily duplicating every kind of possible testimony in both House and Senate committees. This just feels like stalling, there's no real push to get anything done, at least not until the primary is over, and Quinn can give a budget address tailored to his GOP opponent.

    Quinn's had some rough news recently, especially with NRI. I don't think the people of the state are paying that much attention to it right now. But this could be one of those issues that if pushed hard, could maybe create some indictments or at least grand jury subpoenas by November. That would make it much easier for Republicans to connect him to Blagojevich. But that's something the party has failed to do successfully with anyone. It amazes me but I think Democrats have been far more successful in tainting Republicans with Ryan, despite the fact that most voters don't even know why he went to jail, but they're all very aware of what happened with Blago.

    It's also interesting to see polls showing Hardiman getting strong support on the Democratic side. I think everyone sees this as what it is, anti-Quinn sentiment, not pro-Hardiman. This shows how beatable Quinn is. But it changes based on who is facing him. Dillard and Rutherford are easy alternatives if they face Quinn. But if it's Rauner, or somehow Brady, I think it's another case of democrats holding their nose and voting for Quinn. I almost wonder if the Democratic party wouldn't be better off throwing money behind Rauner, in the hope they get a much better opponent to vilify in the fall.

    In other races, I've seen some Gollin ads trying to paint Ann Callis as being like a tea party member. It's kind of funny, but when you really look at his ads, you can see where his view of center is, that any cut to a program like Medicare would be just absurd. I don't know if he can overcome her money and backing, but if he does, it's easy picking for Rodney Davis in November. And I say Davis, not Harold, simply because I just don't think she stands a chance. She could easily be taking over Naomi Jakobssen's seat in the Illinois House, but instead she's going to end up with nothing. Nice girl, bright future, bad decision, weak campaign.

   I think one of the most interesting races in Central Illinois is still for the GOP nomination for Sangamon County Sheriff. It's gotten nastier than I expected, but maybe that was destined to be the course. There's really not a lot of controversy surrounding the office right now, so there can't be much in the way serious changes to propose that would grab voters' attention. One interesting thing I see here, is that I think Barr has been somewhat successful at playing the outsider, while in reality he's the political insider, at least if there is one in this race. Campbell hasn't been very involved in politics, which while it sounds good for the populist angle, could be his undoing, because he hasn't been out there working on everyone else's campaigns, collecting favors. And the outsider thing may not mean much anyway, since I think most residents in the county aren't upset with the current sheriff.

    I missed my updates last week... so I'm not off to a good start. But it's remained pretty busy. My wife was putting together a major statewide industry conference and trade show, so I needed to take care of the baby more. Spending more time with the kid is always a good thing and gives some nice perspective of what really matters. I also had to take over with the baby goats, which can be fun as well. After about a week, baby goats, or kids(as they are called), get very playful, jumping on and off of everything they can find and play butting each other. Plus, since we've had to be so hands-on with them, they are very tame.

    But enough of that... So obviously now we know much more about Rutherford's accuser, Ed Michaelowski. First things first, the Treasurer has continued to maintain his belief that Rauner is behind this. Michaelowski walked straight from the Treasurer's office to a Cook County job that no one gets without serious democratic political connections. He also moved to the job under an air of controversy. He's known as a Democrat, worked in Jesse White's office before Rutherford, etc. So I just don't buy Rauner having anything to do with this. If there is a political motive behind this, it's coming from the left. I'm not saying there is, but if it's there, it isn't Rauner. I could see Democrats fearing Rutherford, because if he somehow won, he would likely make a tougher opponent. The Governor isn't very popular right now, and Rutherford would be a much more palatable option for moderates and Democrats. Quinn can't scare people away from Rutherford like he did with Brady. The Treasurer is just too moderate and likable.
    All that being said, I think the race is obviously over for Rutherford. Maybe he could have survived the allegations, but now he's refusing to release his outside investigator's report to the public. He claims that would go against the advice of his legal council, but there is no court order barring the release. This report was paid for with taxpayer dollars(which I think was a mistake in and of itself), so the taxpayers deserve the results. He only looks like he's hiding something now.

    This week Cullerton went after Senate Republicans for complaining about the delay in the Governor's budget address. He's saying if they want to talk budgets, bring their specific solutions to the table, and he's painting a grim outlook, including a 2.9 billion dollar budget hole.
     I'm sorry, but this is absolutely, purely, political. He's running cover for the Governor. The only even remotely intelligent reason Quinn has to delay the budget is to do it after the primary. That way he can tailor it to the opponent he will be facing in November. Cullerton got a nice press bump, but he didn't bring out any real action. Then Cullerton invited all the Senators, and all the GOP candidates to an appropriations hearing Wednesday afternoon to present their specific proposals, and then didn't even bother to show up himself.(neither did any of the GOP contenders)

    While I'm on the Governor's race, many people probably saw this today. http://www.illinoisobserver.net/2014/02/19/tactless-moderator-comment-targeting-rutherford-mars-gop-debate/
   I think this is way overblown, and it has nothing to do with me defending my employer or coworker. Multiple skeletons in the closets were brought up about the candidates, including Rauner maybe using clout to get his kid into a good school, Dillard's ad for Obama, etc. Yes, on first pass, most people probably think of Rutherford after the comment is made, maybe there could have been a better choice of wording, but this was not aimed at Rutherford.
    Outside money is starting to be felt in the race, primarily going after Rauner. AFSCME, SEIU, and IFT have all poured money in to Illinois Freedom PAC, targeting Rauner. So what does Rauner do? He just pours more money in to his own campaign. I think people felt like Rauner would just end up being another Gidwitz or Oberweiss. But while those flamed out quickly, Rauner just keeps going, generally on the same message, and there seems to be no end to the cashflow. It's like he just keeps turning on the faucet when the bucket gets low. I still kind of feel like Rauner may scare too many people in November, or Quinn can make him seem scary. But it's hard to argue with the results of the money. Another difference between Rauner and other previous businessman candidates, is that he seems to be really good at the in-person campaigning that can make or break a run. Someone made the comment to me that both Rauner and Blagojevich are amazing fundraisers and in-person campaigners. They added that Blagojevich was a terrible Governor, so what does that say for a Rauner administration? I guess we'll have to wait and see. His pocketbook may be enough to actually get the GOP back in the mansion.

   

    Last week I talked about the allegations against Dan Rutherford, that he turned into allegations against Bruce Rauner. More facts have come out since then, but we still don't know whether the allegations have any merit. Biggest update for me, is that I had a one-on-one interview with Rutherford this week.

    So, first things first. For anyone who doesn't know my background, I worked in sales for years. I was successful in that field largely because I have a decent ability to read people. Here's my vibe on Rutherford.... he believes, at least to some degree, that the charges are false.That doesn't mean much, because a lot of very guilty people have believed they were innocent.

    We now know the accuser is male. Obviously this brings up questions about sexual orientation. Rutherford was explaining to me how Rauner was behind all this. I said these allegations include pressure to do political work, which is nothing new in Illinois. He said that's not true for the Treasurer's office under Dan Rutherford. I said the allegations also include sexual harassment from a male employee, so do you think they are attacking your sexual orientation? His answer? "That's up to the Rauner campaign, they're the ones out there spinning this."

    As I have said, I think this situation gives Rutherford the opportunity to go after Rauner for going so low as to smear him by saying he's gay. But to do that, Rutherford needs to say that's what is going on. So far he hasn't.

    I stand by my belief that people over-estimate how much it would hurt a GOP candidate to be gay. However, I think when people, who may at least be a little homophobic(which I feel is a large chunk of the population), hear things like this, they may have a tendency to view the accused as a molester type, which they would not if the alleged victim was a woman, and possibly not if they knew in advance the accused was gay. Not fair by any means, but I think that's the Illinois electorate.

    I'm not saying Rutherford is gay or straight. I'm not outing anyone, because I don't know either way. But I keep feeling like if he is gay, this would cause less damage if he had come out previously. And I don't think someone's sexual orientation is necessarily anyone else's business. But when you are a statewide elected official, and you're running for governor, things change. Whether it's anyone's business or not may not matter.

    But again, we are all talking about Rutherford this week. We weren't two weeks ago. Maybe that has something to do with this. Rutherford told me that clearly he's the only one that threatens Bruce Rauner. If people believe that's true, maybe they suddenly view Rutherford as a front-runner. I did point out to Rutherford that in recent polls, it's Brady who is second to Rauner. Rutherford responded that we know the polls don't mean that much, that he is the only one with the financial resources to challenge Rauner. He does have a point, he's the only other candidate who has raised much money. But even with that, the polls do still have Brady in 2nd.

    I have always said if Brady would have talked less in 2010, he would have won. I think he needed to just keep saying that he wouldn't raise taxes, Quinn would, and shut up about everything else. This year, he seems to maybe be going that route. He's not out there saying much, other than how good the pension reform bill he worked on is helping Illinois. And he's 2nd in most polls. If I had to make a wager today, that someone other than Rauner would win the primary, I would put my money on Brady. It would not shock me at all for a similar situation to 2010, where Chicago and suburban republicans split the vote there, and Brady locks up downstate. For the record, anyone who believes downstate votes are meaningless should go to Colorado and talk to Blagojevich, who has multiple times credited his primary success against Vallas with focusing on downstate. And while I've felt all along that Rutherford should be the strongest candidate(winning Chicago for statewide office in 2010, fairly moderate candidate), I'm starting to believe Brady might have the best chance to beat Quinn. I think Rauner will scare too many people, but there may be some serious voters' remorse over picking Quinn in 2010. Brady was the other choice, maybe this time those voters go with him. I think if the party wants to win this fall, they should have backed Brady. Too many of the established members went for Dillard. But at the same time, if I'm just wagering on who wins the GOP primary, I put my money on Rauner, then Brady.

I meant to post yesterday, but it was a long day, I have a nasty sinus infection, etc. Big thing slowing me down this week though is a herd of goats. For those who don't know, I live on the family farm, and we had up until recently 4 goats. Then 3 sets of twins were born during the snow storms, now we're up to 10. Lots of problems with that many babies and mothers in a small space, so it's eating a lot of time.

    So while I'm talking about animals, I have to mention a story I did Friday, about an accused animal neglector. This person lives in Springfield, but rents property near Dawson where there is a trailer that no one lives in, with no electricity, but multiple dogs locked inside, and a pony that apparently is rarely fed and has no shelter even in this weather. In November, concerned neighbors called us about this person, said a horse died there of starvation. A photographer went there to get video, got shots of the dead horse, and a tree that had been stripped of bark as high as a horse can reach. Now a horse needs to be pretty hungry to eat the bark off the trees. She claims the horse was sick when she got it. Maybe that's true, but again, a horse has to be really hungry to eat bark, so it clearly wasn't getting enough food.

    Neighbors say they are now feeding the pony, because the owners only show up once a week, and there is no water for it. These same owners have tried to lock the neighbors out from feeding the pony, and now have apparently contacted the sheriff and are wanting to press trespassing charges. Again, they want to prosecute someone for feeding their neglected animal. We contacted Dept of Ag and State's Attorney Milhiser, who says 3 counts of a misdemeanor have been filed against the woman for failing to meet owner's duties, over the dead horse. She calls the station Friday night, saying she didn't get her side out, despite me quoting her in the story. Then she blatantly lies to the reporter who went to interview her, claiming the trailer has had electricity and heat( I was there Friday, there was no meter for electricity), the pony is well taken care of, etc. This whole thing just disgusts me.

    After my story ran, relatives of the woman's boyfriend called the station to tell us they thought he should be charged as well, because he is co-owner of the animals. This woman then goes on a rant on her facebook page talking about how she is an animal lover. Forget the horse and pony, remember this is a woman that calls herself an animal lover and has multiple dogs locked in trailer with no heat or electricity, a trailer no human lives in. Seriously