So I may not be able to do this blog for much longer, so I should have fun while I can. The budget address is Wednesday, so what will be the plan? Just as a warning, these are just wild guesses.
First thing, why did Quinn propose cutting the fee to file for an LLC in his state of the state? Dan Long from CGFA says their data shows Illinois' current personal income tax rate(with the temporary hike) as being competitive with neighboring states. But the corporate rate is not. If it drops to 3.5% per Madigan's earlier proposal, plus the 2.5% replacement tax(which needs to be added together for accurate comparison), we get a 5% corporate rate, which is competitive with the neighbors. If you drop the corporate rate and extend the personal rate, the first complaint will be that most businesses file as individuals. But then Quinn can say he made it easier for them to file as corporations, thus protecting the job creators, while bringing in needed revenue. Problem with this idea? Not populist enough for Quinn. You seem like you are giving breaks to big business, while hurting ordinary citizens. Solution? Madigan's millionaire tax. No it doesn't fill the entire budget hole, but it helps the cause.
Another thought on a different route, whether to pass a full year or 6 month budget. A 6 month budget means you can match spending to revenue, which would include the current rates, thus negating the 1.6 billion dropoff for the first half of the year. Quinn can spend like the rates stay the same, then if he gets re-elected or not, push for an extension during the lame duck session, or if he loses, let Rauner deal with 1.6 billion less for half the budget year, which would make cuts twice as harsh for that half. I honestly think Quinn believes in his cause, and would have a hard time doing the latter, but maybe he would be okay simply trying his best to pass the extension whether he wins or loses, whether it passes or fails.
Third possibility I'm throwing out there, push for a progressive income tax. Getting on the ballot and passing it in November doesn't bring enough money in soon enough, but he could push for new borrowing to cover us until then.
Whatever way he goes, Rauner is now the opponent, so Quinn has to be very careful about simply pushing for an extension of the current tax hike. Generally speaking, pro-tax increase candidates lose to those who push for lower taxes. So no matter what, he has to make sure any higher taxes are targeted at millionaires and not most voters. And hes to make sure he pushes for at least current levels of education funding, since schools are a pet cause for Rauner.
Thursday, March 20, 2014
So I was out of town at a funeral today, and missed the fun of the millionaire amendment. My intial gut reaction is... Seriously? This feels like a movie about politics, not the real thing. And from Madigan, the most powerful man in Illinois. Come on. First off this is over the top populist, secondly I can't see it passing, but who knows. This just seems so easy to attack, because millinaires are the people who can most easily relocate. Plus this is coming from the same lawmaker who filed a bill cutting corporate taxes to 3.5%. Mixed messages? We offer lower taxes for your business, but for the owner, you get hit extra hard.
Why are we hearing things like this? Simple, because Brady almost beat Quinn in 2010 on the single issue of not raising taxes. No one wants to raise taxes, or extend the income tax hike on very many Illinoisans.(at least not those with significant authority)
I have to take this as a simple attempt, along with the corporate tax cut proposal, to just get lots of ideas out there before the election, make no one happy, but offer everyone hope that they're on your side. Plus maybe this lets Quinn reference this proposal as taxing people like Rauner, and hitting up the .01% thing.
Why are we hearing things like this? Simple, because Brady almost beat Quinn in 2010 on the single issue of not raising taxes. No one wants to raise taxes, or extend the income tax hike on very many Illinoisans.(at least not those with significant authority)
I have to take this as a simple attempt, along with the corporate tax cut proposal, to just get lots of ideas out there before the election, make no one happy, but offer everyone hope that they're on your side. Plus maybe this lets Quinn reference this proposal as taxing people like Rauner, and hitting up the .01% thing.
So I'm breaking down today into multiple posts. I haven't been as active here as I would have liked, lots going on personally that I can't talk about, plus a death in the family which had me out of town today, etc. So first, the primary election. As expected, Bruce Rauner and Pat Quinn won. No shockers on Tuesday, other than how close the GOP side was. Whether it was Dillard getting dems to cross over, or low turnout, he over achieved. I said before that on a dollar spent per percentage point of the vote total, Dillard was doing better than Rauner. That definitely was the case then. As far as Quinn, he won 75%, which is a strong victory, but I think there were plenty of dems pulling republican ballots. If that wasn't the case, I believe Hardiman would've taken a higher percentage of the vote. Clearly there are dems unhappy with Quinn, but come November, I believe they'll hold their nose and vote for the incumbent. This will likely be the most expensive gubernatorial race in Illinois history, but if I'm a betting man, I say we have the same governor at this time next year.
Also, I was kind of disappointed that Rutherford stayed in the race, yet came out pretty much as soon as the polls closed and conceded. His votes could've changed the outcome, and he surely knows this. Obviously he doesn't have much love for Rauner, but yet he stayed in and helped Rauner win. Bad call for him.
A lot of people were giving Brady heat for not dropping out, but keep in mind he heard many of the same complaints in 2010 before winning. No one should really fault him for staying him.
As a final note, I talked to Dillard the next day, and he seemed genuinely happy. Clearly the end of the campaign is a big relief, and I think he is taking solace in the moral victory of a near victory, despite being outspent by millions. He always seems like a true class act. He says he has no plans for running for any other offices in the future, so kudos to him for a long and distinguished career in Illinois politics.
Also, I was kind of disappointed that Rutherford stayed in the race, yet came out pretty much as soon as the polls closed and conceded. His votes could've changed the outcome, and he surely knows this. Obviously he doesn't have much love for Rauner, but yet he stayed in and helped Rauner win. Bad call for him.
A lot of people were giving Brady heat for not dropping out, but keep in mind he heard many of the same complaints in 2010 before winning. No one should really fault him for staying him.
As a final note, I talked to Dillard the next day, and he seemed genuinely happy. Clearly the end of the campaign is a big relief, and I think he is taking solace in the moral victory of a near victory, despite being outspent by millions. He always seems like a true class act. He says he has no plans for running for any other offices in the future, so kudos to him for a long and distinguished career in Illinois politics.
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
The primary keeps drawing nearer. Today our PAR intern had a little sheet where they try to predict who is going to win a multitude of races. I think it would be a fun game if elected officials, media memebers, etc. had to fill these out, then we all look back at them mid next week.
The biggest things that stand out to me in the races are the narrowing of the gap between Rauner and Dillard, and between Hardiman and Quinn. The Dillard bump should be expected, he's been getting strong support from a multitude of union groups. The cash is getting his ads out there, it's that simple. He had been doing nothing for months, so he was languishing in last place. Now the entire non-Rauner-backing-establishment is behind him, as are the unions that are just scared of Rauner. Rauner was the only one getting much airtime, that led to his massive lead. Now we're seeing what some cash behind Dillard can do as well. And in fairness, I think if you look at dollar per poll percentage type view, Dillard may be outperforming Rauner. The problem is that Dillard just doesn't have the same amount of cash.
The bigger problem is that all the sudden Dillard supporters are probably just too late. It would be interesting to see how this race could've been moving along if that financial support had occurred a month or two ago, when Rauner wasn't so far out front. But that didn't happen. Most people saw Rauner early on and pictured Oberweiss, Gidwitz, etc. Big question here is how well Rauner's ground game will work, and how many people the unions can get to actually pull GOP ballots for Dillard. The idea of that happening also makes me wonder if those temporary Republicans could affect other races with their ballots.
Meanwhile the Governor seems to be in hiding, and lawmakers continue to work on budget stuff, apparently by primarily duplicating every kind of possible testimony in both House and Senate committees. This just feels like stalling, there's no real push to get anything done, at least not until the primary is over, and Quinn can give a budget address tailored to his GOP opponent.
Quinn's had some rough news recently, especially with NRI. I don't think the people of the state are paying that much attention to it right now. But this could be one of those issues that if pushed hard, could maybe create some indictments or at least grand jury subpoenas by November. That would make it much easier for Republicans to connect him to Blagojevich. But that's something the party has failed to do successfully with anyone. It amazes me but I think Democrats have been far more successful in tainting Republicans with Ryan, despite the fact that most voters don't even know why he went to jail, but they're all very aware of what happened with Blago.
It's also interesting to see polls showing Hardiman getting strong support on the Democratic side. I think everyone sees this as what it is, anti-Quinn sentiment, not pro-Hardiman. This shows how beatable Quinn is. But it changes based on who is facing him. Dillard and Rutherford are easy alternatives if they face Quinn. But if it's Rauner, or somehow Brady, I think it's another case of democrats holding their nose and voting for Quinn. I almost wonder if the Democratic party wouldn't be better off throwing money behind Rauner, in the hope they get a much better opponent to vilify in the fall.
In other races, I've seen some Gollin ads trying to paint Ann Callis as being like a tea party member. It's kind of funny, but when you really look at his ads, you can see where his view of center is, that any cut to a program like Medicare would be just absurd. I don't know if he can overcome her money and backing, but if he does, it's easy picking for Rodney Davis in November. And I say Davis, not Harold, simply because I just don't think she stands a chance. She could easily be taking over Naomi Jakobssen's seat in the Illinois House, but instead she's going to end up with nothing. Nice girl, bright future, bad decision, weak campaign.
I think one of the most interesting races in Central Illinois is still for the GOP nomination for Sangamon County Sheriff. It's gotten nastier than I expected, but maybe that was destined to be the course. There's really not a lot of controversy surrounding the office right now, so there can't be much in the way serious changes to propose that would grab voters' attention. One interesting thing I see here, is that I think Barr has been somewhat successful at playing the outsider, while in reality he's the political insider, at least if there is one in this race. Campbell hasn't been very involved in politics, which while it sounds good for the populist angle, could be his undoing, because he hasn't been out there working on everyone else's campaigns, collecting favors. And the outsider thing may not mean much anyway, since I think most residents in the county aren't upset with the current sheriff.
The biggest things that stand out to me in the races are the narrowing of the gap between Rauner and Dillard, and between Hardiman and Quinn. The Dillard bump should be expected, he's been getting strong support from a multitude of union groups. The cash is getting his ads out there, it's that simple. He had been doing nothing for months, so he was languishing in last place. Now the entire non-Rauner-backing-establishment is behind him, as are the unions that are just scared of Rauner. Rauner was the only one getting much airtime, that led to his massive lead. Now we're seeing what some cash behind Dillard can do as well. And in fairness, I think if you look at dollar per poll percentage type view, Dillard may be outperforming Rauner. The problem is that Dillard just doesn't have the same amount of cash.
The bigger problem is that all the sudden Dillard supporters are probably just too late. It would be interesting to see how this race could've been moving along if that financial support had occurred a month or two ago, when Rauner wasn't so far out front. But that didn't happen. Most people saw Rauner early on and pictured Oberweiss, Gidwitz, etc. Big question here is how well Rauner's ground game will work, and how many people the unions can get to actually pull GOP ballots for Dillard. The idea of that happening also makes me wonder if those temporary Republicans could affect other races with their ballots.
Meanwhile the Governor seems to be in hiding, and lawmakers continue to work on budget stuff, apparently by primarily duplicating every kind of possible testimony in both House and Senate committees. This just feels like stalling, there's no real push to get anything done, at least not until the primary is over, and Quinn can give a budget address tailored to his GOP opponent.
Quinn's had some rough news recently, especially with NRI. I don't think the people of the state are paying that much attention to it right now. But this could be one of those issues that if pushed hard, could maybe create some indictments or at least grand jury subpoenas by November. That would make it much easier for Republicans to connect him to Blagojevich. But that's something the party has failed to do successfully with anyone. It amazes me but I think Democrats have been far more successful in tainting Republicans with Ryan, despite the fact that most voters don't even know why he went to jail, but they're all very aware of what happened with Blago.
It's also interesting to see polls showing Hardiman getting strong support on the Democratic side. I think everyone sees this as what it is, anti-Quinn sentiment, not pro-Hardiman. This shows how beatable Quinn is. But it changes based on who is facing him. Dillard and Rutherford are easy alternatives if they face Quinn. But if it's Rauner, or somehow Brady, I think it's another case of democrats holding their nose and voting for Quinn. I almost wonder if the Democratic party wouldn't be better off throwing money behind Rauner, in the hope they get a much better opponent to vilify in the fall.
In other races, I've seen some Gollin ads trying to paint Ann Callis as being like a tea party member. It's kind of funny, but when you really look at his ads, you can see where his view of center is, that any cut to a program like Medicare would be just absurd. I don't know if he can overcome her money and backing, but if he does, it's easy picking for Rodney Davis in November. And I say Davis, not Harold, simply because I just don't think she stands a chance. She could easily be taking over Naomi Jakobssen's seat in the Illinois House, but instead she's going to end up with nothing. Nice girl, bright future, bad decision, weak campaign.
I think one of the most interesting races in Central Illinois is still for the GOP nomination for Sangamon County Sheriff. It's gotten nastier than I expected, but maybe that was destined to be the course. There's really not a lot of controversy surrounding the office right now, so there can't be much in the way serious changes to propose that would grab voters' attention. One interesting thing I see here, is that I think Barr has been somewhat successful at playing the outsider, while in reality he's the political insider, at least if there is one in this race. Campbell hasn't been very involved in politics, which while it sounds good for the populist angle, could be his undoing, because he hasn't been out there working on everyone else's campaigns, collecting favors. And the outsider thing may not mean much anyway, since I think most residents in the county aren't upset with the current sheriff.
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