The primary keeps drawing nearer. Today our PAR intern had a little sheet where they try to predict who is going to win a multitude of races. I think it would be a fun game if elected officials, media memebers, etc. had to fill these out, then we all look back at them mid next week.

    The biggest things that stand out to me in the races are the narrowing of the gap between Rauner and Dillard, and between Hardiman and Quinn. The Dillard bump should be expected, he's been getting strong support from a multitude of union groups. The cash is getting his ads out there, it's that simple. He had been doing nothing for months, so he was languishing in last place. Now the entire non-Rauner-backing-establishment is behind him, as are the unions that are just scared of Rauner. Rauner was the only one getting much airtime, that led to his massive lead. Now we're seeing what some cash behind Dillard can do as well. And in fairness, I think if you look at dollar per poll percentage type view, Dillard may be outperforming Rauner. The problem is that Dillard just doesn't have the same amount of cash.

    The bigger problem is that all the sudden Dillard supporters are probably just too late. It would be interesting to see how this race could've been moving along if that financial support had occurred a month or two ago, when Rauner wasn't so far out front. But that didn't happen. Most people saw Rauner early on and pictured Oberweiss, Gidwitz, etc. Big question here is how well Rauner's ground game will work, and how many people the unions can get to actually pull GOP ballots for Dillard. The idea of that happening also makes me wonder if those temporary Republicans could affect other races with their ballots.

    Meanwhile the Governor seems to be in hiding, and lawmakers continue to work on budget stuff, apparently by primarily duplicating every kind of possible testimony in both House and Senate committees. This just feels like stalling, there's no real push to get anything done, at least not until the primary is over, and Quinn can give a budget address tailored to his GOP opponent.

    Quinn's had some rough news recently, especially with NRI. I don't think the people of the state are paying that much attention to it right now. But this could be one of those issues that if pushed hard, could maybe create some indictments or at least grand jury subpoenas by November. That would make it much easier for Republicans to connect him to Blagojevich. But that's something the party has failed to do successfully with anyone. It amazes me but I think Democrats have been far more successful in tainting Republicans with Ryan, despite the fact that most voters don't even know why he went to jail, but they're all very aware of what happened with Blago.

    It's also interesting to see polls showing Hardiman getting strong support on the Democratic side. I think everyone sees this as what it is, anti-Quinn sentiment, not pro-Hardiman. This shows how beatable Quinn is. But it changes based on who is facing him. Dillard and Rutherford are easy alternatives if they face Quinn. But if it's Rauner, or somehow Brady, I think it's another case of democrats holding their nose and voting for Quinn. I almost wonder if the Democratic party wouldn't be better off throwing money behind Rauner, in the hope they get a much better opponent to vilify in the fall.

    In other races, I've seen some Gollin ads trying to paint Ann Callis as being like a tea party member. It's kind of funny, but when you really look at his ads, you can see where his view of center is, that any cut to a program like Medicare would be just absurd. I don't know if he can overcome her money and backing, but if he does, it's easy picking for Rodney Davis in November. And I say Davis, not Harold, simply because I just don't think she stands a chance. She could easily be taking over Naomi Jakobssen's seat in the Illinois House, but instead she's going to end up with nothing. Nice girl, bright future, bad decision, weak campaign.

   I think one of the most interesting races in Central Illinois is still for the GOP nomination for Sangamon County Sheriff. It's gotten nastier than I expected, but maybe that was destined to be the course. There's really not a lot of controversy surrounding the office right now, so there can't be much in the way serious changes to propose that would grab voters' attention. One interesting thing I see here, is that I think Barr has been somewhat successful at playing the outsider, while in reality he's the political insider, at least if there is one in this race. Campbell hasn't been very involved in politics, which while it sounds good for the populist angle, could be his undoing, because he hasn't been out there working on everyone else's campaigns, collecting favors. And the outsider thing may not mean much anyway, since I think most residents in the county aren't upset with the current sheriff.